Daily U.S. Session Watchlist: USD/JPY
The likely top FX market moving event is the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy decision, but for today’s watchlist, we’re looking at the Greenback as U.S. President Trump’s speech on trade in just a couple of hours could have a big impact on all financial markets.
Of course, we won’t know what he’ll say or the market’s reach may be, which makes USD/JPY kind of the perfect pair to play any potential pop in volatility given its technical setup.
On the one hour chart above of USD/JPY, we can see the pair has been consolidating into a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that sets up both the bulls and the bears. It’s a simple idea in that if the pair breaks the rising ‘lows’ then you have a short signal, and vice versa, a break of the falling ‘highs’ you have a buy signal.
So for the bulls, if Trump gives the markets positive commentary on the U.S.-China trade war AND USD/JPY breaks the triangle to the upside, then that’s a high probability setup of further upside moves. Given the daily ATR of around 70 pips on the pair, a reasonable target would be the next major psychological area around 109.00, with an invalidation area of below the triangle making for a nice potential R:R.
For the bears, a break below the rising ‘lows’ on negative comments from Trump will likely draw in USD/JPY sellers and risk aversion traders in general, and using the same entry/exit guides, the area around 108.50 is a reasonable short-term target as the previous consolidation around the area may draw in traders for profit taking or even a bullish position depending on what we get from Trump.